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Marriage Support as a Growth Agenda:The Case for a Marriage-Year Tax Relief
19/03/2026
Ella Barlow and Peter Foreshaw Brookes
This report lays out the argument for a discount on an individual’s personal income, national insurance and student loans repayment bill of up to £2,300 in the financial year they enter their first marriage if they are aged between 18 and 34 years old. A tax relief programme of this size would increase the marriage rate whilst maintaining similar marital stability rates. Through the increase in marriage, it would increase household investment, helping to close the investment gap between the UK and more prosperous nations, such as Germany and the US. It would also support individuals to realise their family ideals, both in terms of stable partnership and, in turn, their fertility ideals, helping to close the gap between the rate of people who desire a stable partner and the proportion who do and the gap between the number of children people ideally would like and the number they have. Further, it would reduce the mechanical tax rate for low wage part time workers, stimulating labour supply in the year of marriage. The proposal would cost under £1 billion and could be funded with a phase-out of the triple lock at no cost to current state pension claimants. It would therefore provide great value.
A Primer on Marriage and Economic Outcomes
28/02/2026
Lucky Bheemreddy, Ronitth Vasani and Zain Khwaja
This report finds evidence in favour of the thesis that subsidising marriage would increase household investment and savings. Marriages, in general, predict increases in household savings and investments due to economies of scale, if not wage premiums. Marriages induced by financial incentives have similar outcomes to the average marriage. Therefore, an increase in the marriage rate from financial support will likely increase the quantity of investment in the economy.
The Effect of the Tax Burden on Fertility: An Icelandic Tax-Holiday Case Study
01/10/2025
Ella Wong and Peter Foreshaw Brookes
This report analyses the effect on fertility rate from a tax holiday in Iceland by running a synthetic control method model against other western and northern European countries.
It finds an increase in the total fertility rate (TFR) of 0.33 in the year after the tax holiday, amounting to a 17.1% increase over the counterfactual TFR. Read the report to see the workings and analysis.
A Case Study of Family Policy Success: The Italian Province of Bolzano (South Tyrol)
24/08/2025
Peter Foreshaw Brookes and Marcos Fraser Cabrera
This report analyses the effects of childcare reforms and family discount policies in a German-speaking Italian province by comparing the province to synthetic controls consistent of Austrian and Italian provinces.
It finds that the childcare reforms increased the fertility rate of 3rd and later births by 71% over the counterfactual, and that the family discount policies increased the fertility rate of 3rd and later births by 42% over the counterfactual. Read the report to see the workings and analysis.
Policy Briefing: Costing Front-Loading Child Benefit
05/06/2025
This briefing page gives costings for zero-cost front-loading child benefit. It finds:
Child Poverty Action Group figures suggest the weekly cost of an infant is £298 including housing and childcare
A front-loaded child benefit could cover this as a weekly benefit for all eldest children for 1 year and 20 weeks
A front-loaded child benefit could cover this as a weekly benefit for second children for 49 weeks
Separate childcare funding reforms could address support for children 1-4 years old
Policy Briefing: Zero Cost Family Support Measures
16/05/2025
Earlier in May 2025, the Secretary of State for Education, Bridget Phillipson, argued that childcare reforms would better support people who want to have children. This comes at a time where a growing number of people on both sides of the political aisle are becoming concerned about the widening gap between the number of children people want and the number they have—and its social and economic implications. In 2023, the total fertility rate stood at 1.44 per woman in England and Wales, despite women’s average ideal of 2.35 children.
The figures betray a situation in which people are not having the children they ideally want due to the constraints of modern society. Whilst the state cannot remove all of these constraints, it can make a number of changes at zero cost that would make the lives of new parents substantially easier and make it easier to become a parent.
This briefing contains evidence-backed policy proposals to make family formation easier. The proposals are all in keeping with both socially liberal and socially conservative worldviews and are consistent with—and often conducive to—economic growth objectives.
Recommendations
Front-loading child benefit. As costs rise most steeply upon becoming a parent, people benefit most from upfront payments.
Liberalising family-friendly planning permission in places where it has popular support.
Reforming the childcare sector to repurpose funding and cut costs for families.
Granting rights to extended unpaid parental leave.
Cracking down on deceptive university courses.
Allowing boys to be redshirted.
The report details how each of these recommendations are evidenced to support ease of family formation and how they could be implemented.
Ellen Pasternack, Research and Communications Manager at Civitas and writer of Back to Basics: What is childcare policy for? wrote:
“Often, we hear that it is impossible for the state to do more to support families and close the gap between how many children people want and how many they have because it is too difficult and expensive. But, as this report shows, there are a number of policies that could offer meaningful support to parents that are entirely cost-neutral. Approaches like these will be needed to address the global fertility crash, which looks set to become one of the most pressing challenges for the 21st century.”
Paul Morland, demographer and author of four books on population, including Tomorrow’s People, wrote:
“The CFE is a much-needed addition to the national conversation in advocating for more births. This paper sets out sane and self -financing first steps for policy makers on the long journey we need to take towards raising the birth rate and avoiding a population vortex.”
Bartek Staniszewski, Head of Research at Bright Blue and Associate Fellow of the Centre for Family and Education wrote:
“Low fertility is one of the greatest challenges of our day – not just in the UK, but across most of the developed world – yet its seriousness remains woefully underappreciated. As such, I am delighted to see the Centre for Family and Education release this manifesto for sensible pro-family policies, including many that Bright Blue would support and even called for. At a time of unprecedented fiscal pressures, it is no longer enough for campaigners to simply ask for more money – this manifesto does exactly the right thing by collating well-evidenced, pragmatic policies that would not cost the state an additional penny but could effect an enormous change in the ease with which young people in this country can start and expand their families.”
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