MYTHBUSTER · 6 MIN READ

Having kids won’t hurt the planet

Our kids, we have heard again and again in recent years, are going to be a blight on the environment. Article after article has agonised about whether we should have children at all. Would it not be a kindness to the planet if we just stayed childless? Thus antinatalism has acquired a very modern shade of green. Newer research tells a very different story.

THE CLAIM

“The single most important thing you can do to fight climate change is not have children.”

Why it stuck

Surveys suggest a meaningful share of people cite environmental worry as a reason to have fewer children, or none. Even on a conservative reading — assuming only one in ten of those responses reflects a genuine, decisive reason — that’s still roughly 1 in 100 people who have been influenced. In the UK alone, that would mean 700,000 people choosing not to become parents because of a claim that doesn’t hold up.

What the evidence actually shows

Old data. The famous 2017 study behind the claim borrowed its numbers from 2009 research built on 2005 emissions data which was close to the historical peak for per-person emissions in the developed world.

Double-counting the future. That 2009 obtained such high figures was by including “carbon legacy” for grandchildren, forecasted by conventional fertility rates at the time. Fertility rates have come down since and by counting grandchildren, the authors were accounting for you and your grandchildrens decision to procreate.

Good News, Emissions keep dropping. A 2023 paper (titled “Population Decline: Too Small and Too Slow to Influence Climate Change”) is the first to build falling emissions trends into the model. The paper finds that even a full return to replacement-level fertility raises long-run warming by only 0.05°C by the year 2200.

Family life already lowers emissions. Moving in with a partner tends to cut personal emissions by roughly as much as going car-free, and a UK study found parents have lower personal emissions than non-parents once income is accounted for.

IN SHORT

  • The claim that having a child is the worst thing you can do for the climate rests on outdated 2005 emissions data.

  • A 2023 paper using up-to-date trends found restoring replacement fertility would raise warming by just 0.05°C — by 2200.

  • Parents tend to have lower personal emissions than non-parents at the same income level.

  • A larger population can mean cheaper shared infrastructure and more people working on the problem.

0.05°C

Restoring replacement-level fertility across Europe would raise long-run warming by around 0.05°C by the year 2200 — not 0.5, and not by 2100.

BOTTOM LINE

Since having more children does not bring a significant carbon cost anymore and does help with the aging population, having children is a clear-cut social good. We should stop telling people otherwise, as to reduce the number of people who want children but are put off by incorrect information about the environmental effects.

Having children won’t do a lot of harm to the planet.